Recent Articles

Read more about our latest published articles.

Review’s Archive

Corresponding Author:
Luis A. Monroy-Gómez-Franco, Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA

The Economy in its Labyrinth: A Structuralist View of the Mexican Economy in the 21st Century

Volume 77 - Issue 2 - Latin American Economies: Complex Past and Challenging Future - Part II, May 2024
(pp. 181-206)
JEL classification: O11; O15; O17; 054
Keywords: Shift-Share Analysis; COVID-19; Automation

Abstract

In this paper, I analyze the performance of the Mexican economy during the two decades of the 21st century. I focus on the aggregate and sectoral dynamics of the economy to understand the underlying dynamics behind the aggregate performance of the economy. With these results in mind, I analyze the changes and continuities in the conduction of macroeconomic and labor market policy with the arrival of a new administration in 2018. The goal of analyzing both elements is to provide an integrated view of the situation in which the Mexican economy will face three structural challenges: the medium and long-run effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the integration of artificial intelligence into the production process, and climate change.


Read the full article

Download the article in PDF format to read and print.


Bibliography

Agüero, J. (2014), “Long-Term Effect of Climate Change on Health: Evidence from Heat Waves in Mexico,” Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department, IDB-WP-481.

Alberto, I. C., Y. Jiao andX. Zhang (2021), “Too Hot or too Cold to Study? The Effect of Temperature on Student Time Allocation,” Economics of Education Review, 84(C).

Alvarado Pérez, R., Orraca P.P. Romano and F. Cabrera-Hernández (2023), “El efecto de duplicar el salario mínimo en la brecha de género en empleo y salarios en México”, El Trimestre Económico, 90(360), 961-999, <https://doi.org/10.20430/ete.v90i360.1777>.

Andere, E. (2023), “Llegó Pisa 2022”, Distancia por tiempos,  Blog de Educación de Nexos,   <https://educacion.nexos.com.mx/llego-pisa-2022/>.  

Attinasi, M-G., L. Boeckelmann and B. Meunier (2023), “Friend-Shoring Global Value Chains: A Model-Based Assessment”, ECB Economic Bulletin, no.2, 59-66.

Autor, D.H. (2013), “The “Task approach” to Labor Markets: An overview”, Journal for Labour Market Research, 46(3), 185-199, <https://doi.org/10.1007/s12651-013-0128-z>.

Autor, D.H., F. Levy and R.J. Murnane (2003), “The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(4), 1279-1333, <https://doi.org/10.1162/003355303322552801>.

Bensusán, G. (2020), “The Transformation of the Mexican Labour Regulation Model and its Link to North American Economic Integration” International Labour Organization Working Paper 15.

Bensusán, G. and K.J. Middlebrook (2020). “Political Change from the Outside in: US Trade Leverage and Labor Rights Reform in Mexico”, Foro Internacional, 60(3), 985-1039, <https://doi.org/10.24201/fi.v60i3.2670>.  

Byers, E. (2021), Climate Vulnerability Assessment for Mexico,  Climate Analytics, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, The Center for Clean Air Policy, Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático.

Blanchflower, D. and A. Levin (2015), “Labor Market Slack and Monetary Policy”, NBER Working Paper No. 21094, <https://doi.org/10.3386/w21094>.  

Brito Laredo, J., J. Carrillo Viveros, R., Gomis Hernández and A. Hualde Alfaro (2022), “¿El fin del outsourcing en México? Características de la nueva legislación y perspectivas de futuro”, Región y Sociedad, 34, e1558, <https://doi.org/10.22198/rys2022/34/1558>.  

Calderón, M., J. Cortés, J. Pérez Pérez and A. Salcedo (2023), “Disentangling the Effects of Large Minimum Wage and VAT Changes on Prices: Evidence from Mexico”, Labour Economics, 80, 102294, <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2022.102294>.  

Campos-Vazquez, R.M. and G. Esquivel (2021), “The Effect of Doubling the Minimum Wage on Employment and Earnings in Mexico”, Economics Letters, 209, 110124, <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2021.110124>.  

Campos Vázquez, R.M., G. Esquivel and A.S. Santillán Hernández (2018), “The Impact of the Minimum Wage on Income and Employment in Mexico”, CEPAL Review, 2017(122), 189-216, <https://doi.org/10.18356/d81adc80-en>.

Campos-Vazquez, R.M., V. Delgado and A. Rodas (2020), “The Effects of a Place-Based Tax Cut and Minimum Wage Increase on Labor Market Outcomes”, IZA Journal of Labor Policy, 10(1), <https://doi.org/10.2478/izajolp-2020-0012>.  

Campos-Vazquez, R.M., L.F. Lopez-Calva and N. Lustig (2016), “Declining Wages for College-Educated Workers in Mexico:  Are Younger or Older Cohorts Hurt the Most?”, Revista de Economía Mundial, (43), 93-112, <https://doi.org/10.33776/rem.v0i43.3860>.  

Campos Vázquez, R.M. and L.A. Monroy-Gómez-Franco (2016a), “La relación entre crecimiento económico y pobreza en México”, Investigación Económica, 75(298), 77-113, <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inveco.2016.11.003>.  

Campos Vázquez, R.M. and L.A. Monroy-Gómez-Franco (2016b), “¿Reduce el crecimiento económico la pobreza en México?”, Revista de Economía Mexicana. Anuario UNAM, 1: 140-185.

Campos Vázquez, R.M. and J.A. Rodas Milián (2020), “El efecto faro del salario mínimo en la estructura salarial: Evidencias para México”, El Trimestre Económico, 87(345), 51-97, <https://doi.org/10.20430/ete.v87i345.859>.  

Cebreros, A., A. Heffner-Rodríguez, R. Livas and D. Puggioni (2020), “Automation Technologies and Employment at Risk: The Case of Mexico”, Banco de México Working Paper No. 2020-04, <https://doi.org/10.36095/banxico/di.2020.04>.

Cohen, F. and A. Dechezleprêtre (2022), “Mortality, Temperature, and Public Health Provision: Evidence from Mexico”, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 14(2), 161-192.

del Valle, A. (forthcoming), “Saving Lives with Indexed Disaster Funds: Evidence from Mexico”, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy.

del Valle, A., A. de Janvry and E. Sadoulet (2020), “Rules for Recovery: Impact of Indexed Disaster Funds on Shock Coping in Mexico”, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 12(4), 164-195.

Esquivel, G. (2023), “¿Son realmente “regresivos” los programas sociales en México?”, Animal Político, August 1, <https://www.animalpolitico.com/analisis/autores/el-vaso-medio-vacio/regresivos-programas-sociales>.  

Estrada, F., A. Mendoza-Ponce, O. Calderón-Bustamante and W. Botzen (2022), “Impacts and Economic Costs of Climate Change on Mexican Agriculture”, Regional Environmental Change, 22(4), <https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-022-01986-0>.  

Graff Zivin, J., Y. Song, Q. Tang and P. Zhang (2020), “Temperature and High-Stakes Cognitive Performance: Evidence from the National College Entrance Examination in China,” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 104, 102365.

Groppo, V. and K. Kraehnert (2017), “The Impact of Extreme Weather Events on Education,” Journal of Population Economics, 30(2), 433-472.

Helo Sarmiento, J. (2023), “Into the Tropics: Temperature, Mortality, and Access to Health Care in Colombia”, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 119,102796, <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2023.102796>.

Ibarra, C.A. (2018a), “Asymmetric Real-Exchange-Rate Effects on Capital Accumulation: Evidence from Non-Linear ARDL Models for Mexico”, Latin American Economic Review, 27(1), <https://doi.org/10.1186/s40503-018-0057-x>.

Ibarra, C.A. (2018b), “Technical and Structural Change and the Fall in the Manufacturing Output–Capital Ratio in Mexico, 1990–2015”, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 43(3), 649-675, <https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bey038>.  

Ibarra, C.A. (2020), “Real Exchange Rate and Relative Profit Margins: Evidence from Non-Linear ARDL Models for Mexico”, The Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 29(4), 373-398, <https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2019.1700544>.  

Ibarra, C.A. and J. Ros (2019), “Profitability and Capital Accumulation in Mexico: A First Look at Tradables and Non-Tradables Based on KLEMS”, International Review of Applied Economics, 33(3), 426-452, <https://doi.org/10.1080/02692171.2018.1511691>.  

Ibarrarán, M.E., E.L. Malone and A.L. Brenkert (2010), “Climate Change Vulnerability and Resilience: Current Status and Trends for Mexico”, Environment, Development and Sustainability, 12(3), 365-388, <https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-009-9201-8>.  

INEGI (2018), Modelo KLEMS - Año base 2018, Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía.

Jaramillo-Molina, M.E. (2020), ¿Una nueva política social?: cambios y continuidades en los programas sociales de la 4T,  in: México: transición y vértigo. Segundo semestre 2019 (Análisis plural), ITESO: Guadalajara, pp. 137-154.

Lewis, W.A. (1954), “Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labour”, The Manchester School, 22(2), 139-191, <https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9957.1954.tb00021.x>.  

Martínez Espinoza, M.I. (2023). “Política social y pobreza en la 4T”, Revista Mexicana de Sociología, 85(Especial), 41-69.

Maudos, J., J.M. Pastor and L. Serrano (2008), “Explaining the US–EU Productivity Growth Gap: Structural Change vs. Intra-Sectoral Effect”, Economics Letters, 100(2), 311-313, <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2008.02.017>.

Milesi-Ferretti, G. M. (2021), “A Most Unusual Recovery: How the US Rebound from Covid Differs from Rest of G7”, Brookings, December 8, <https://www.brookings.edu/articles/a-most-unusual-recovery-how-the-us-rebound-from-covid-differs-from-rest-of-g7/>.  

Minian, I. and Á. Martinez Monroy (2018), “El impacto de las nuevas tecnologías en el empleo en México”, Problemas Del Desarrollo. Revista Latinoamericana de Economía, 49(195), <https://doi.org/10.22201/iiec.20078951e.2018.195.64001>.  

Miranda López, F. (2018), “Infraestructura escolar en México: brechas traslapadas, esfuerzos y límites de la política pública”, Perfiles Educativos, 40(161), 32-52, <https://doi.org/10.22201/iisue.24486167e.2018.161.58564>.  

Monroy-Gómez-Franco, L.A. (2022), “Modelling the Learning Impacts of Educational Disruptions in the Short and Long Run.” Stone Center on Socioeconomic Inequalities Working Paper No. 52, <https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/kvtjd>.  

Monroy-Gómez-Franco, L.A. (forthcoming), “A Note on Ex-Ante Inequality of Opportunity across Mexican Regions.” Economics Bulletin, 43(1).

Monroy-Gómez-Franco, L.A. and P. Villagómez-Ornelas (2024), “Stratification Economics in the Land of Persistent Inequalities”, American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 83(1), 157-175, <https://doi.org/10.1111/ajes.12527>.

Monroy-Gómez-Franco, L., R. Vélez-Grajales and L.F. López-Calva (2022), “The Potential Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Learnings”, International Journal of Educational Development, 91, 102581, <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijedudev.2022.102581>.

Moreno-Brid, J.C., S. Garry and L.A. Monroy-Gómez-Franco (2014), “El Salario Mínimo en México”, Economía UNAM, 11(33), 78-93, <https://doi.org/10.1016/s1665-952x(14)72182-6>.  

Moreno-Brid, J.C., J. Sánchez-Gómez and L.A. Monroy-Gómez-Franco (2020), “Mexico’s Latest- and Probably Last-Package of Market Reforms (2012-18): The Remains of the Day”, Cuadernos de Economía, 39(80), 425-443.

OECD (2023), PISA 2022 Results (Volume I): The State of Learning and Equity in Education, PISA, OECD Publishing: Paris, < https://doi.org/10.1787/53f23881-en>.

Padilla-Pérez, R. and F.G. Villarreal (2017), “Structural Change and Productivity Growth in Mexico, 1990–2014”, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 41, 53-63, <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2017.02.002>.  

Pinto, A. (1970), “Naturaleza e implicaciones de la ‘heterogeneidad estructural’ de la América Latina”, El Trimestre Económico, 37(145), 83-100.

Ramos, M.E., J. Garza-Rodríguez and D.E. Gibaja-Romero (2022), “Automation of Employment in the Presence of Industry 4.0: The Case of Mexico”, Technology in Society, 68, 101837, <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techsoc.2021.101837>.

Ros, J. (2015a), ¿Cómo salir de la trampa del lento crecimiento y alta desigualdad?, El Colegio de México.

Ros, J. (2015b), Productivity and Growth: Stylized Facts and Kaldor’s Laws in Latin America, in: “Development Macroeconomics in Latin America and Mexico: Essays on Monetary, Exchange Rate, and Fiscal Policies”, Palgrave Macmillan: New York, pp. 27-54.

Sánchez Vargas, A. (2023), “La sostenibilidad fiscal y el espacio fiscal en México en el final del sexenio 2018-2024”, Economía UNAM, 20(60), 11-24, <https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.22201/fe.24488143e.2023.60.816>.

Valverde-Rodríguez, F.J. (2023), “The Effects of Minimum Wage in the Presence of Monopsonic Power in Latin America:  A Study Case for Mexico”, Dissertation, MSc. in Economics, University of Sussex.

Vélez-Grajales, R. and L.A. Monroy-Gómez-Franco (2023), Por una cancha pareja  Igualdad de oportunidades para lograr un México más justo, Grano de Sal.

Yaschine Arroyo, I. (2023), Política Social en México en el siglo XXI. Cambios, continuidades y retos, in: E. Provencio Durazo, R. Cordera Campos (Eds), “Los derroteros del desarrollo”, Programa Universitario de Estudios del Desarrollo, pp. 148-162.

Register your account

First-time users should click on “Register your account” and enter the requested information. Upon successful registration, you will receive an e-mail with instructions to verify your registration.

Submission Guidelines

Authors’ login

Use the assigned user ID and password to login. Please, do not register again. Usernames and passwords may be changed after.

Quick search by author:
A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
Back to the top

Institute for International Economics
of the Genoa Chamber of Commerce


Istituto di Economia Internazionale
Camera di Commercio di Genova
Via Garibaldi, 4 (III piano) - 16124 Genova (Italy)
www.ge.camcom.gov.it