Istituto di Economia Internazionale - Does Weak Macroeconomic Performance Affect Voter Turnout? An Analysis Accounting for the 'Joshua Generation Effect'

Recent Articles

Read more about our latest published articles.

Review’s Archive

Corresponding Author:
Richard J. Cebula, Davis College of Business, Jacksonville University, Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Coauthors:
Maggie Foley, Davis College of Business, Jacksonville University, Jacksonville, Florida, USA
Sriparna Ghosh, Department of Economics, West Virginia University, Morgantown, West Virginia, USA

Does Weak Macroeconomic Performance Affect Voter Turnout? An Analysis Accounting for the 'Joshua Generation Effect'

Volume 71 - Issue 1, February 2018
(pp. 9-28)
JEL classification: D72, R10
Keywords: Voter Turnout, Macroeconomic Performance

Abstract

This empirical study applies an interpretation of the model of expressive voting to investigate whether higher unemployment rates as a measure of weak macroeconomic performance in U.S. induce an increase in voter participation of eligible voters in Presidential elections. The study period involves the four election-cycle years of 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012. The Random Effects estimations imply that voter turnout among eligible voters is a decreasing function of the percent of the population that was Hispanic and an increasing function of the percent of the adult population with a high school diploma, the percent of the adult population with a four-year college degree, and election closeness between the two major-party Presidential candidates, as well as the “Joshua Generation Effect”. Voter turnout is also found to be an increasing function of the level of the state unemployment rate of the civilian labor. This outcome is consistent with the hypothesis stating that the number of eligible voters, who are concerned with the implications of excessively high unemployment, increases with the unemployment rate. The eigible voters consist of both employed eligible voters and unhappy unemployed eligible voters who go to the polls and cast their ballots.

Read the full article

Download the article in PDF format to read and print.

Bibliography

American Community Survey (2016), “Educational Attainment, Table 1501”, U.S. Census Bureau, <https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=ACS_15_5YR_S1501&src=pt/>.
American Community Survey (2016), “Population by Race, Table S0103”, U.S. Census Bureau, <https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk/>.
American Research Group (2016), “New Hampshire Poll for Presidential Ballot”, American Research Group, November 3, <http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/pres16/>.
Barreto, M.A., G.M. Segura and N.D. Woods (2004), “The Mobilizing Effect of Majority-Minority Districts on Latino Turnout”, American Political Science Review, 98(1), 65-76.
Brody, R.A. and P.M. Sniderman (1977), “From Life Space to Polling Place: The Relevance of Personal Concerns for Voting Behavior”, British Journal of Political Science, 7(3), 337-360.
Burden, B.C. and A. Wichowsky (2014), “Economic Discontent as a Mobilizer: Unemployment and Voter Turnout”, The Journal of Politics, 76(4), 887-898.
Campbell, A., P. Converse, W. Miller and D. Stokes (1960), The American Voter, University of Chicago Press: Chicago, IL.
Cebula, R.J. (2004), “Expressiveness and Voting: Alternative Evidence”, Atlantic Economic Journal, 32(3), 216-221.
Cebula, R.J. (2008), “Influence of the Number of Statewide Referenda Involving Emotionally - Charged Issue on Voter Turnout, 2006”, Atlantic Economic Journal, 36(4), 383-393.
Cebula, R.J. (2017), “Unemployment and Voter Turnout Revisited: A Brief Note”, Electoral Studies, 48(1), 149-152.
Cebula, R.J., F. Angjellari-Dajci and F. Rossi (2016), “The Disenfranchisement and Enfranchisement Voter Participation Rate Hypothesis: Preliminary Analysis”, International Journal of Applied Economics, 13(1), 1-14.
Copeland, C. and D.N. Laband (2003), “Expressiveness and Voting”, Public Choice, 110(3), 351-363.
Council of Economic Advisors (2017), Economic Report of the President (2017), U.S. Government Printing Office: Washington, D.C.
Current Population Survey (2016), “Annual Social and Economic Supplements, Table H-8, Median Household Income by State”, U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, <http://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/income-poverty/historical-income-households.html/>.
Current Population Survey (2016), “Local Area Unemployment Statistics”, U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, <https://www.bls.gov/lau/ex14tables.htm/>.
Górecki, M.A. (2009), “Uncertainty is (Usually) Motivating: Election Closeness and Voter Turnout in 2002 and 2006 President Election in Poland”, Polish Sociological Review, 166(3), 297-308.
Hausman, J.A. (1978), “Specification Tests in Econometrics”, Econometrica, 46(6), 1251-1271.
Kirchgässner, G. and A.M. Zu Himmern (1997), “Expected Closeness and Turnout: An Empirical Analysis for the German General Elections, 1983-1994”, Public Choice, 91(1), 3-25.
Matsusaka, J. (1995), “Fiscal Effects of the Voter Initiative: Evidence from the Last 30 Years”,
Journal of Political Economy, 103(3), 587-623.
Matsusaka, J.G. and F. Palda (1999), “Voter Turnout: how much can we Explain?”, Public Choice, 98(3/4), 431-446.
Radcliff, B. (1992), “The Welfare State, Turnout, and the Economy”, American Political Science Review, 86(2), 444-454.
Radcliff, B. (1994), “Reward without Punishment: Economic Conditions and the Vote”, Political Research Quarterly, 47(3), 721-731.
Remnick, D. (2008), “The Joshua Generation”, The New Yorker, November 17.
Rosenstone, S.J. (1982), “Economic Adversity and Voter Turnout”, American Journal of Political Science, 26(1), 25-46.
Rosenstone, S.J. and J.M. Hansen (1993), Mobilization, Participation, and Democracy in America, Macmillan Publishing Co.: New York, NY.
Southwell, P. (1988), “The Mobilization Hypothesis and Voter Turnout in Congressional Elections”, 1974-1982”, Western Political Quarterly, 41(2), 273-287.
United States Election Project (2017), “Voter Turnout”, <http://www.electproject.org/home/voter-turnout/voter-turnout-data/>.

Recent Articles

Review’s Archive

Does Weak Macroeconomic Performance Affect Voter Turnout? An Analysis Accounting for the 'Joshua Generation Effect'

Abstract

Read the full article

Bibliography

Register your account

Authors’ login

Institute for International Economics of the Genoa Chamber of Commerce

Institute for International Economics
of the Genoa Chamber of Commerce