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Corresponding Author:
Enas Ghonimi, School of Economics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China

Coauthors:
GABRIEL ERNESTO MUNGUAMBE, School of Economics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan – China
ELY LEBURU, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan – China
FUMANE METSING, School of Economics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan – China
PEDRO PINTO SILIMA, Peoples' Friendship University of Russia - Russian Federation

The Footprint of Progress in Africa: Industrialization under Pressure and the Quest for Resilient Economies

April 3, 2026
JEL classification: O14; O25; Q42
Keywords: Industrialization; Conditional Decoupling; Mediation Analysis; Two-Way Fixed Effects; Renewable Energy; Africa

Abstract

Africa’s pursuit of structural transformation occurs within a sharply constrained ecological budget, a condition we term “industrialization under pressure”. Applying a Two-Way Fixed Effects regression with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors alongside formal mediation analysis to a panel of 35 African nations (2000–2024), we test how renewable energy and human capital mediate the industry-environment relationship. We uncover robust evidence of conditional decoupling, where industrial growth associates with decreased CO₂ emissions. Renewable energy emerges as the critical mediator, with its mitigating effect strengthening significantly over time and having intensified since 2010. In contrast, human development shows no significant mediating role, and institutional quality reinforces carbon-intensive pathways. These findings necessitate a strategic policy pivot, underscoring that an accelerated renewable energy transition is the primary lever for building resilient African economies.


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of the Genoa Chamber of Commerce


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