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Corresponding Author:
Giovanni Ferri, Department of Law, Economics, Politics and Modern Languages, LUMSA (Libera Università Maria Santissima Assunta), Rome – Italy

Coauthors:
Gaetano Fausto Esposito, Centro Studi delle Camere di Commercio Guglielmo Tagliacarne, Rome - Italy
Marco Pini, Centro Studi delle Camere di Commercio Guglielmo Tagliacarne, Rome - Italy
Anton Giulio Bottoni, Centro Studi delle Camere di Commercio Guglielmo Tagliacarne, Rome - Italy

Is Relationship Banking Supporting Firms' Adaptation to an Uncertain World?

July 8, 2026
JEL classification: D22; F14; F60; G21; L10; L25
Keywords: Polycrisis; Firms’ Adaptation; Informal Business Frameworks; Relationship Banking

Abstract

While the emergence of a polycrisis era – with overlapping, causally entangled crises, such as pandemics, war, inflation, natural disasters, etc. – heightens persistent uncertainty and challenges societal stability, we ask whether informal business frameworks may help firms to adapt to the changed business environment. Namely, we focus on relationship banking, an implicit contractual arrangement between a firm and its main bank, and study whether this arrangement supports a firm’s successful adaptation.

Using microdata on a sample of 2,370 firms, representative of the Italian productive landscape, we test four key hypotheses linked, directly or indirectly, to a firm’s ability to adapt. First, we investigate whether relationship lending – the most visible expression of relationship banking – amplifies a firm’s bank credit availability. Second, we check whether relationship banking boosts a firm’s green investments in response to the energy shock. Third, we verify whether relationship banking associates with a firm’s safer access to export markets in response to Trump’s tariffs shock to trade. Fourth, we examine whether relationship banking is associated with nearshoring as a response to supply chain disruption shocks.

Our evidence suggests that, indeed, relationship banking is supporting firms’ adaptation to the polycrisis.

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