Recent Articles

Read more about our latest published articles.

Review’s Archive

Corresponding Author:
David Carment, Centre for Global Cooperation Research, Duisburg, Germany

Corresponding Coauthors:
Joseph Landry, Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada
Yiagadeesen Samy, Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada
Scott Shaw, Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada

State Transitions for the Middle East and North Africa Region: A Structural Assessment Using the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy Framework

(pp. 57-80)
JEL classification: C82, F50, O53, 057
Keywords: Algeria, Arab Spring, CIFP, Fragile States, Libya, Middle East and North Africa, State Fragility, State Transitions, Yemen


Using the framework developed by the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) project (, this paper examines state transitions in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.  While previous studies have found legitimacy to be a particular concern across the region, our most recent data confirms that legitimacy remains a key issue, even if it has improved since the Arab Spring which began in late 2010.  We complement this regional analysis by examining the structural characteristics of three countries – Algeria, Libya, Yemen – using CIFP’s ALC framework to understand the evolution of state transitions pre- and post-Arab Spring.  This examination reveals significant differences in the evolution of the characteristics of ‘stateness’ across the various cases.   

Read the full article

Download the article in PDF format to read and print.


Achy, L. (2012), “Algeria Avoids the Arab Spring”, Carnegie Middle East Center, 31 May, <>

Al Jazeera (2011), “Algeria Repeals Emergency Law”, Al Jazeera, 23 February, <>.

Batty, D. (2011), “Algerian Police Crack Down On Protesters”, The Guardian, 12 February, <

BBC (2014), “Yemen Crisis: Who Are the Houthis?”,  23 September, <>.

Carment, D., S. Prest and Y. Samy (2009a), Security, Development and the Fragile State: Bridging the Gap Between Theory and Policy, Routledge: Abingdon.

Carment D., S. Prest and Y. Samy (2009b), “Approaches to Country Risk and Early Warning”, Economia Internazionale, 62(3), 297-323.

Country Indicators for Foreign Policy, <>.

Fattah, K. (2014), “Yemen’s Insecurity Dilemma”, The Washington Report on Middle East Affairs 33, no. 2, March/April, 32-33.

Fund for Peace, <>.

Granger, C.W.J. (1969), “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods”, Econometrica, 37(3), 424-438.

Human Rights Watch (2011a), Libya: Security Forces Fire on ‘Day of Anger’ Demonstrations, 17 February.

Human Rights Watch (2011b), Libya: Security Forces Fire on Protesters in Western City, 27 February.

Human Rights Watch (2012), “Death of  a Dictator”, <>

International Crisis Group Report (2011), Popular Protest in North Africa and The Middle East (V): Making Sense of Libya,

< NorthAfrica/107-PopularProtestinNorthAfricaandtheMiddleEastVMakingSenseofLibya.

Juneau, T. (2013), “Yemen and the Arab Spring: Elite Struggles, State Collapse and Regional Security”, Orbis, 57(3), 408-423.

Khan, M. and K. Mezran (2014), No Arab Spring for Algeria, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, Atlantic Council, May, 


Kuperman, A.J. (2013), “A Model Humanitarian Intervention? Reassessing NATO’s Libya Campaign”, International Security, 38(1), 105-136.

Marshall, M., and B.R. Cole (2014), Global Report 2014: Conflict, Governance, and State Fragility, Center for Systemic Peace, .

Rodrik, D. (2011), “The Poverty of  Dictatorship”, Project Syndicate, 9 February.

Shaw, S. (2013), “Fallout in the Sahel: the Geographic Spread of Conflict from Libya to Mali”, Canadian Foreign Policy Journal, 19(2), 199-210.

The Telegraph (2011), “Yemen’s President Saleh Wounded in Palace Attack”, The Telegraph , 3 June, <

Vandewalle, D. (2012), A History of Modern Libya, Cambridge University Press.

Volpi, F. (2013), “Algeria Versus the Arab Spring”, Journal of Democracy, 24(3), 104-115.

Register your account

First-time users should click on “Register your account” and enter the requested information. Upon successful registration, you will receive an e-mail with instructions to verify your registration.

Submission Guidelines

Authors’ login

Use the assigned user ID and password to login. Please, do not register again. Usernames and passwords may be changed after.

Quick search by author:
Back to the top

Institute for International Economics
of the Genoa Chamber of Commerce

Istituto di Economia Internazionale
Camera di Commercio di Genova
Via Garibaldi, 4 (III piano) - 16124 Genova (Italy)