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Corresponding Author:
Deergha Raj Adhikari, Department of Economics and Finance, University of Louisiana at Lafayette, LA - USA

Coauthors:
Denis Boudreaux, University of Louisiana at Lafayette, LA - USA
S.P. Uma Rao, University of Louisiana at Lafayette, LA - USA

Effect of Inflation on Income Distribution

June 14, 2024
JEL classification: E31; E52; E64
Keywords: GINI Coefficient; Income Distribution; Inflation; VECM; VAR

Abstract

In this study, we attempt to examine if inflation has any impact on income distribution (the GINI coefficient). To find that out, we applied VECM on the variables GINI coefficient (a measure of income inequality or income distribution) and INF (inflation rate) on US data from 1990 to 2020. We find that while inflation has no impact on income distribution in the short run, it has a negative impact in the long run. The possible explanation for inflation to have negative impact on Gini coefficient in the long run is that although the rich people derive their income from profit, rent, and interest which tend to increase during inflation, but if interest paid to own rental properties rises by such a greater proportion than the proportionate rise in rent that the difference between the two rises is so large to offset the rise in interest income following an inflation episode, then the income ratio must fall causing income inequality between the rich and the poor to decline thereby lowering the value of Gini coefficient, which is exactly what might have happened in U.S. case over the study period. On the other hand, the possible explanation for the finding that inflation had negative but insignificant impact on Gini coefficient in the short run is that, when inflation occurs and passes the threshold set by the central bank (e.g. the Federal Reserve in the U.S.), it raises the target federal funds rate, which then causes all other interest rates to rise. However, the Fed responds, with a lag, to any change in inflation rate, output and employment as collecting and analyzing the relevant data and formulating an appropriate policy and implementing it takes time, the Fed’s contractionary monetary policy to combat inflation comes with a lag too. Also, even when the Fed raises the federal funds rate to combat inflation, the transmission mechanism through which the federal funds rate influences other interest rates takes some time to play itself out. Further, if economic agents view this hike in federal funds rate as a temporary phenomenon, they may not respond the way expected and the rent and other interest rates may remain unaffected in the short run. As such, the effect on earnings of high-income people coming from raised interest rate and rent following a contractionary monetary policy of the Fed also comes with a lag. Therefore, any effect of inflation on high-income people’s earning and thereby on Gini coefficient migh have been absent in the short run.


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