Recent Articles

Read more about our latest published articles.

Review’s Archive

Corresponding Author:
Nicola Acocella, University La Sapienza, Memotef, Rome, Italy

Stagnation

Volume 74 - Issue 2, May 2021
(pp. 121-140)
JEL classification: E3, E52, F02, L13, O40
Keywords: Financial Cycle, Secular Stagnation, Inequality, Great Recession, Oligopolistic Power, Globalisation

Abstract

The recent period of low income growth can be explained as the outcome either of a reduction in the indebtedness accumulated over the years of the crisis (i.e. of a financial cycle) or of secular stagnation, deriving from long run tendencies, the Great Recession, growing inequalities, institutional factors and globalization. This kind of situation requires a number of policies, including expansionary monetary policies, raising retirement age and limiting the oligopolistic power of big firms.

 

 


Read the full article

Download the article in PDF format to read and print.


Bibliography

Acemoglu, D., S. Johnson and J.A. Robinson (2001), “The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation”, The American Economic Review, 91(5), 1369-1401.

Acemoglu, D. and P. Restrepo (2018), “Demographics and Automation”, NBER Working Paper No. 24421, March.

Anselmann, C. (2020), Secular Stagnation Theories. A Historical and Contemporary Analysis with a Focus on the Distribution of Income, Springer: Heidelberg.

Aronoff, D. (2016), A Theory of Accumulation and Secular Stagnation. A Malthusian Approach to Understanding a Contemporary Malaise, Palgrave Macmillan: New York.

Barro, R.J. (2000), “Inequality and Growth in a Panel of Countries”, Journal of Economic Growth, 5(1), 5-32.

Basso, H.S. and J.F. Jimeno (2020), “From Secular Stagnation to Robocalypse? Implications of Demographic and Technological Changes”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 117, 833-847, <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.06.004>.

Benigno, G. and L. Fornaro (2017), “Stagnation Traps”, ECB Working Paper Series No. 2038, March 2017.

Bergeaud, A., G. Cette and R. Lecat (2018), “Long-Term Growth and Productivity Trends: Secular Stagnation or Temporary Slowdown?”, Revue de l'OFCE, 2018/3, (157), 37-54.

Bernanke, B.S. (2015a), “Why are Interest Rates so Low?”, Ben Bernanke’s Blog, Brookings, 30 March.

Bernanke, B.S. (2015b), “Why are Interest Rates so Low, part 2: Secular Stagnation”, Ben Bernanke’s Blog, Brookings, 31 March.

Bivens, J. (2017), “Inequality is Slowing US Economic Growth. Faster Wage Growth for Low- and Middle-Wage Workers is the Solution”, Economic Policy Institute: Washington, December 12.

Blecker, R.A. (2015), “The U.S. Economy since the Crisis. Slow Recovery or Secular Stagnation?”, Speech presented at ‘The Spectre of Stagnation? Europe in the World Economy’, 19th FMM/IMK Conference, October, Hans Bockler Foundation: Berlin.

Borio, C. (2017), “Secular Stagnation or Financial Cycle Drag?”, 33rd Economic Policy Conference, 5-7 March, National Association for Business Economics: Washington, DC.

Buiter, W., E. Rahbari and J. Seydl (2015), “Secular Stagnation: The Time for One-Armed Policy is Over”, VOX, CEPR Policy Portal,  5 June

Cova P., A. Notarpietro, P. Pagano and M. Pisani (2019), Secular stagnation, R&D, public investment, and monetary policy: A global-model perspective, Macroeconomic Dynamics, , Published online by Cambridge University Press: 30 September 2019.

De Grauwe, P. (2015), “Secular Stagnation in the Eurozone”, VOX, CEPR Policy Portal, 30 January.

De Grauwe, P. and Y. Ji (2020), “A Tale of three Depressions”, VOX CEPR Policy Portal, 24 September.

Delli Gatti, D., M. Gallegati, B. Greenwald, A. Russo and J. Stiglitz (2012), “Mobility Constraints, Productivity Trends, and Extended Crises”, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 83(3), 375-393.

Eggertsson, G.B., N.R. Mehrotra and J.A. Robbins (2017), “A Model of Secular Stagnation: Theory and Quantitative Evaluation”, NBER Working Paper No. 23093, February.

Eichengreen, B. (2014), Secular Stagnation: A Review of the Issues, in: C. Teulings, R. Baldwin (2014a), “Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes, and Cures”, A VoxEU.org eBook, CEPR Press.

Eichengreen, B., D. Park and K. Shin (2013), “Growth Slowdowns Redux: New Evidence on the Middle-Income Trap”, NBER Working Paper No. 18673, January.

European Commission, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (2008), EMU@10: Successes and Challenges after 10 Years of Economic and Monetary Union, European Economy 2/2008.

Gordon, R. (2012), “Is US Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six Headwinds”, NBER Working Paper No. 18315.

Gordon, R. (2014a), The Turtle’s Progress: Secular Stagnation Meets the Headwinds, in: C. Teulings, R. Baldwin (2014a), “Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes, and Cures”, A VoxEU.org eBook, CEPR Press.

Gordon, R. (2014b), US Economic Growth Is Over: The Short Run Meets the Long Run, in: “Growth, Convergence and Income Distribution: The Road from the Brisbane G-20 Summit”, Brookings, Think Tank 20, November, pp. 185-192.

Hansen, A.H. (1939), “Economic Progress and Declining Population Growth”, The American Economic Review, 29(1), 1-15.

Hein, E. (2015), “Secular Stagnation or Stagnation Policy? Steindl after Summers”, Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, Working Paper No. 846, October.

Hume, M. (2020), Macroeconomic Imbalances in the Euro Area: Can they be Managed, in: N.F. Campos, P. De Grauwe, Y. Ji (Eds), “Economic Growth and Structural Reforms in Europe”, Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.

Jones, C. (2018), “Aging, Secular Stagnation and the Business Cycle”, IMF Working Paper 18/67, March.

Juselius, M., C. Borio, P. Disyatat and M. Drehmann (2016), “Monetary Policy, the Financial Cycle and Ultralow Interest Rates”, BIS Working Paper No. 569, July.

Kalecki, M. (1954), Theory of Economic Dynamics, George Allen and Unwin: London.

Kalecki, M. (1971), Selected Essays on the Dynamics of the Capitalist Economy, 1933-70, Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.

Keynes, J.M. (1930), Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, in: “Essays in Persuasion”, Macmillan: London, pp. 321-332.

Kiefer, D., I. Mendieta-Muñoz, C. Rada and R. Von Armin (2020), “Secular Stagnation and Income Distribution Dynamics”, Review of Radical Political Economics, 2(2), 189-207.

Kobayashi, K. and K. Ueda (2020), “Secular Stagnation and Low Interest Rates under the Fear of a Government Debt Crisis”, CAMA Working Paper 2020-40, The Australian National University.

Krugman, P. (2014), Four Observations on Secular Stagnation, in: C. Teulings, R. Baldwin (2014a), “Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes, and Cures”, A VoxEU.org eBook, CEPR Press.

Krugman, P. (2020), The Case for Permanent Stimulus, in: R. Baldwin, B. Weder di Mauro (Eds), “Mitigating the COVID Economic Crisis: Act Fast and Do Whatever It Takes”, CEPR Press.

Le Garrec, G. and V. Touzé (2018), “Macroeconomics in the Age of Secular Stagnation”, Revue de l’OFCE, 157(3), 69-92.

Lin, H. (2016), “Risks of Stagnation in the Euro Are”, IMF Working Paper 16/9, January.

Mazzucato, M. (2018), “Mission-Oriented Innovation Policies: Challenges and Opportunities”, Industrial and Corporate Change, 27(5), 803-815.

Mill, J.S. (1887), Principles of Political Economy, D. Appleton and Co.: New York, I Ed. 1848.

Mokyr, J. (2014), Secular Stagnation? Not in your Life, in: C. Teulings, R. Baldwin (2014a), “Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes, and Cures”, A VoxEU.org eBook, CEPR Press.

Nikiforos, M. (2020), “Demand, Distribution, Productivity, Structural Change, and (Secular?) Stagnation”, Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, Working Paper No. 945, January.

North, D.C. and R.P. Thomas (1973), The Rise of the Western World: A New Economic History, Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.

Onaran, Ö (2016), “Secular Stagnation and Progressive Economic Policy Alternatives”, PKSG, Post Keynesian Economics Study Group Working Paper 1609, May.

Pariboni, R., W. Paternesi Meloni and P. Tridico (2020), “When melius abundare is no Longer True: Excessive Financialization and Inequality as Drivers of Stagnation”, Review of Political Economy, 32(2), 216-242.

Petach, L. and D. Tavani (2019), “Income Shares, Secular Stagnation, and the Long-Run Distribution of Wealth”, October 10, <https://ssrn.com/abstract=3198311> or >. 

Pichelmann, K. (2015), “When ‘Secular Stagnation’ Meets Piketty’s Capitalism in the 21st Century. Growth and Inequality Trends in Europe Reconsidered”, European Economy, Economic Papers 551, June.

Popović, M. (2018, “Technological Progress, Globalization, and Secular Stagnation”, Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, 7(1), 59-100.

Posen, A.S. (2020), Containing the Economic Nationalist Virus through Global Coordination, in: R. Baldwin, B. Weder di Mauro (Eds), “Mitigating the COVID Economic Crisis: Act Fast and Do Whatever It Takes”, CEPR Press.

Rachel, Ł. and L.H. Summers (2019), “On Secular Stagnation in the Industrialized World”, NBER Working Paper No. 26198, August.

Ramey, V.A. (2020), “Productivity Origins of ‘Secular Stagnation’ ”, American Economic Association Meetings, 3 January.

Rannenberg, A. (2019), “Inequality, the Risk of Secular Stagnation and the Increase in Household Debt”, National Bank of Belgium Working Paper Research No. 375, August.

Reichlin, P. (2019), “Economic Stagnation and Recession: the Difficult Italian Transition to the Monetary Union”, Journal of Modern Italian Studies, 24(3), 402-414, DOI: <10.1080/1354571X.2019.1605717>.

Reinhart, C. and K. Rogoff (2009), This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press: Princeton, New Jersey.

Reinhart, C., V. Reinhart and K. Rogoff (2015), “Dealing with Debt”, Journal of International Economics, 96(1), S43-S55.

Schmelzing, P. (2018), “Eight Centuries of the Risk-Free Rate Bond Market Reversals from the Venetians to the VAR-Shock”, Bank of England Staff Working Paper No. 686, October.

Steindl, J. (1952), Maturity and Stagnation in American Capitalism, Blackwell: Oxford, second edition 1976, Monthly Review Press: New York, London.

Steindl, J. (1979), “Stagnation Theory and Stagnation Policy”, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 3(1), 1-14.

Stiglitz, J. (2017), “Inequality, Stagnation, and Market Power. The Need for a New Progressive Era”, Roosevelt Institute Working Paper.

Summers, L.H. (2013), Speech at the IMF Economic Forum, 8 November, .

Summers, L.H. (2014), Reflections on the ‘New Secular Stagnation Hypothesis’,  in: C. Teulings, R. Baldwin (2014a),  “Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes, and Cures”, A VoxEU.org eBook, CEPR Press.

Summers, L.H. (2020), “Accepting the Reality of Secular Stagnation”, Finance & Development, 57(1), 17-19,  <https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2020/03/larry-summers-on-secular-stagnation.htm>. 

Terzi, A. and P.M. Marrazzo (2020), Structural Reforms and Growth: The Elusive Quest for the Silver Bullet, in: N.F. Campos, P. De Grauwe, Y Ji (Eds), “Economic Growth and Structural Reforms in Europe”, Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.

Teulings, C. and R. Baldwin (2014a), (Eds), Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes and Cures, A VoxEU.orgBook, CEPR Press.

Teulings C. and R. Baldwin (2014b), Introduction, in: C. Teulings, R. Baldwin (2014a), “Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes, and Cures”, A VoxEU.org eBook, CEPR Press.

van Treeck, T. (2015), “Inequality, the Crisis, and Stagnation”, European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, 12(2), 158-169.

Wren-Lewis, S. (2016), “A General Theory of Austerity”, Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford, BSG-WP-2016/014, May.

Wyplosz, C. (2006), “European Monetary Union: The Dark Sides of a Major Success”, Economic Policy, 21(46), 208-261.

Register your account

First-time users should click on “Register your account” and enter the requested information. Upon successful registration, you will receive an e-mail with instructions to verify your registration.

Submission Guidelines

Authors’ login

Use the assigned user ID and password to login. Please, do not register again. Usernames and passwords may be changed after.

Quick search by author:
A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
Back to the top

Institute for International Economics
of the Genoa Chamber of Commerce


Istituto di Economia Internazionale
Camera di Commercio di Genova
Via Garibaldi, 4 (III piano) - 16124 Genova (Italy)
www.ge.camcom.gov.it